黃金時代的至暗時刻

Humanprogress has continued to advance exponentially since the Enlightenment. And itisn't stopping, despite what will be a particularly severe yet ultimatelytemporary slowdown caused the by the COVID-19 pandemic.

啟蒙運動以來，人類的發(fā)展呈幾何時增長。即使在新冠肺炎肆虐的當下，這種發(fā)展也沒有停止。

It'seasy to forget — especially since many people never fully realized — thatvirtually every vulnerability our species endures, other than this recentoutbreak, has on average continued retreating across the globe over the pastcenturies, decades and years.

很多人已經(jīng)忘記，或者從未意識到，人類在幾百年來經(jīng)歷過的其它災難。

Thatgoes for the proverbial Four Horsemen — War, Famine, Pestilence and Death.

災難的罪魁禍首就是戰(zhàn)爭、饑荒、瘟疫和死亡。

Fewerpeople than ever are dying in conflicts around the planet.

越來越少的人死于這些災難。

Fewerare starving. Average life expectancy has doubled over the past century, andthe child mortality rate has been halved over the past two decades.

因饑餓死亡的人數(shù)下降了。過去一百年人類的平均壽命成倍增加，過去二十年兒童死亡率也減半。

Evendeaths by lightning strikes are down.

中風的死亡率也下降了。

And,yes, we should still remember that fewer people than ever are contracting anddying from diseases, with COVID-19 as an exception — for now.

疾病致死率也在下降，除了目前的新冠肺炎。

It'sworth appreciating that this progress ultimately means there has never been abetter time for such a global crisis as this pandemic to occur, given theadvancements in science, technology and public health.

幸虧病毒導致的國際危機發(fā)生在這個科技和公共衛(wèi)生水平都更加發(fā)達的時代。

Thetechnical aptitudes needed in every component of overcoming COVID-19 — whileobstinately far from perfect — are more sophisticated than at any time inhistory.

戰(zhàn)勝病毒所需的技術(shù)手段都比歷史上任何時期都先進，盡管我們這些技術(shù)還并不完美。

Andthat means it'll be all the sooner — although nobody can say exactly when —that we'll look back at the pandemic's impact as a solemn but surmountablesetback on what remains an upward trajectory of human progress. That is,ultimately, a few unusually rough years.

這意味著我們遲早會戰(zhàn)勝病毒，在未來回顧時，會記得這段已經(jīng)被克服的挫折。

Andbeyond our recently developed technical competencies remains the ancient andinnate resilience of human beings. It has been intrinsic to us as long as we'vebeen a species and originated in our evolutionary genealogy long before.

除了科技進步之外，人類在進化過程中發(fā)展出很強的適應力。

Ascognitive scientist Steven Pinker points out in an interview with the UK'sChannel 4 News in mid-April: "Although it seems now like nothing will everbe the same because we're in the midst of the worst of it, but when the curveis bent, when the pandemic has wreaked its toll, and life returns to normal,all of the forces that made us connected in the first place aren't going to goaway."

認知領域的科學家StevenPinker在四月中旬接受英國四頻道采訪時表示，雖然一切似乎都會改變，但疫情過后生活將回歸正軌，一開始連接我們的力量都會繼續(xù)存在。

Pinkeris among a growing movement of public intellectuals, called the "NewOptimists", promoting awareness of how far human progress has advanced andanticipation that exponential improvement will persist.

Pinker和很多學者一樣屬于“新樂觀派”。他們認為人類的發(fā)展速度依然會很快。

Thinkerslike him, including Oxford economist Max Roser, late Swedish statistician HansRosling and US journalist Nicholas Kristof, point out that progress isincremental and long term, while disasters are sudden and relatively shortterm.

持相同觀點的人還有牛津大學經(jīng)濟學家MaxRoser、瑞典已故統(tǒng)計學家HansRosling和美國記者NicholasKristof。他們指出人類發(fā)展是長期遞增的過程，而災難只是突發(fā)和相對短期的。

Progressis a slow burn. Disasters are abrupt flare-ups.

發(fā)展是循序漸進，而災難是突然發(fā)生。

Consequently,advancement isn't apparent in the public consciousness, although the datairrefutably prove it's real. It's a situation in which cognitive biases obscureobjective reality.

雖然數(shù)據(jù)證實發(fā)展是真實存在的，但公眾的認知較少，因此主觀偏見會模糊客觀事實。

A2015 YouGov poll, for instance, found 65 percent of UK and 81 percent of Frenchrespondents believed the world was getting worse overall. Pinker's researchfinds that majorities in a sample of 14 mostly wealthy countries agreed.

例如2015年的一項調(diào)查顯示，65%的英國人和81%的法國人相信世界在向不好的方向發(fā)展。認知領域?qū)＜襊inker研究發(fā)現(xiàn)，14個最發(fā)達國家的多數(shù)民眾都持這種觀點。

Chinaseems to be the only major country surveyed where most people were optimistic,The Guardian reports.

《衛(wèi)報》的報道顯示，中國似乎是唯一個多數(shù)民眾持樂觀態(tài)度的國家。

Andthe outbreak seems to have expanded intercontinental pessimism.

此次疫情的爆發(fā)也助長了全球消極情緒。

"Punditrygoes into overdrive, and we imagine the disruption we're facing now will bepermanent," Pinker says.

Pinker表示，大家認為目前的困難將會永遠存在。

"Butthere's a massive tendency to slip back into life as normal. And I think thatwill be the overwhelming tendency."

但很多跡象表明生活會回歸正軌，我認為這是最終趨勢。

Certainly,we're living through the darkest moments of the brightest of times.

我們這個最好的時代，在經(jīng)歷最黑暗的時刻。

Butto recognize that, especially amid the pandemic, we must deliberately looktoward the light to see the beacon of tomorrow shining across ages before andto come.

但我們要認識到必須向著光明前進。