英語新聞丨專家提醒近期出生人數(shù)上升是暫時現(xiàn)象

Several regions in China have reported a rise in new births during the first half of the year, driven by pent-up demand to have children following the COVID-19 pandemic and the auspicious Year of the Dragon. However, experts caution that the increase is likely a short-term "episode" and that reversing the long-term decline in births will require more robust policy support.

2024年7月以來，多地發(fā)布數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年上半年出生人口同比有所增長。專家表示，這與三孩政策以及農(nóng)歷“龍年生龍子”有一定關系，也可能預示著出生人口下降趨勢略微出現(xiàn)緩解。

In Guangdong province, the number of births rose by 1.4 percent year-on-year during the first six months, according to Liu Fenghua, deputy head of Guangdong Women and Children Hospital.
廣東省婦幼保健院副院長劉風華向記者介紹，今年1-6月，全省活產(chǎn)數(shù)比去年同期略有增長，增幅為1.4%。

 Liu told the Yangcheng Evening News that the increase was fueled by China's 2021 policy allowing couples to have up to three children, as well as the cultural significance of the Year of the Dragon, which symbolizes success, wealth and good fortune.
劉風華在接受《羊城晚報》采訪時表示，這一增長受到中國2021年三孩政策的推動，以及龍年寓意成功、財富和好運的傳統(tǒng)觀念影響。

"The increase may indicate a temporary easing of the downward trend in new births," Liu said.
 劉風華表示：“這一增長可能表明新生兒出生人數(shù)下降趨勢的暫時緩解?！?/p>

In Qingdao, Shandong province, the number of births rose by 5.93 percent year-on-year, reaching 22,669 in the first half of this year. Du Weiping, a senior official with the city's health commission, told a local television program that the number of newborns in Qingdao is expected to see a slight increase or remain stable throughout the year.

青島衛(wèi)生健康委員會黨組成員杜維平在接受采訪時表示，青島戶籍人口出生數(shù)為22669人，同比增長5.93%，預計青島市2024年出生人口將與去年持平或略高于去年。

He attributed the growth to an uptick in the number of women of childbearing age, pro-birth government policies and the preference for children born in the Year of the Dragon. However, Du predicted that the number of newborns would remain low over the next few years.
杜維平表示，目前青島人口出生數(shù)量有所增加可能有以下幾個原因：育齡婦女結構性增加，政策推動及屬相偏好。據(jù)推測，未來的幾年里，青島出生人口仍將維持在一個低生育水平上。

In Baoji, Shaanxi province, the number of newborns in five surveyed hospitals and medical institutions increased by 10.7 percent year-on-year during the first half of the year, according to the city's bureau of statistics. Officials said the baby boom was driven by the end of the COVID-19 pandemic, which had previously discouraged some couples from having children due to health concerns. The Year of the Dragon and supportive government policies also played a role in the surge.
 陜西寶雞統(tǒng)計局數(shù)據(jù)顯示，今年上半年五家調(diào)查醫(yī)院和醫(yī)療機構的新生兒數(shù)量同比增長了10.7%。專家表示，許多年輕人擔心新冠病毒對孩子健康成長危害性，表示不敢結婚不敢懷孕；同時，龍年的生育觀念和三孩政策也發(fā)揮了重要作用。

Despite these localized increases, the National Bureau of Statistics reported a long-term decline in births. The number of newborns peaked at 17.86 million in 2016 but has fallen each year since, reaching just 9.02 million last year. The country's overall population has also declined for a second consecutive year, dropping by more than 2 million from 2022.
 盡管地方性的增長存在，國家統(tǒng)計局報告了長期出生人口的下降。2016年出生人數(shù)曾達到1760萬，此后每年呈下降趨勢，去年降至僅902萬。國家總人口也連續(xù)第二年下降，比2022年減少了超過200萬。

In response, local governments have introduced various incentives, including tax breaks and childcare subsidies, to encourage more births. However, experts warn that these measures are insufficient to reverse the country's demographic trends.
對此，地方政府推出了包括減稅和育兒補貼政策在內(nèi)的各種激勵措施以鼓勵生育。然而，專家表示，這些措施不足以逆轉國家的人口趨勢。

Yuan Xin, professor at Nankai University's School of Economics and vice-president of the China Population Association, emphasized that the current uptick in births is temporary and cannot halt the long-term decline. He pointed out that after China lifted most COVID-19 restrictions in late 2022, many couples who had postponed having children during the pandemic decided to have babies the next year, leading to the increase observed in early 2024.
南開大學經(jīng)濟學院教授、中國人口學會副會長原新表示，當前出生人數(shù)的上升是暫時的，無法阻止長期下降的趨勢。他指出，隨著中國在2022年底取消疫情限制，許多在疫情期間推遲生育的夫妻決定在2023年生育，從而導致2024年初的增長。

"However, the number of women of childbearing age will continue to decline, while the country's overall birthrate is unlikely to rise. The downward trend in newborns will persist," Yuan said, adding that it will take time for pro-birth policies to have a significant impact. He suggested that more substantial government measures will be needed to address the ongoing population decline.

原新表示：“育齡婦女人數(shù)將繼續(xù)下降，我國整體出生率不太可能上升。新生兒的下降趨勢仍將持續(xù)?！敝С稚恼咝枰獣r間才能產(chǎn)生重大影響。他建議政府需要采取更實質(zhì)性的措施來解決持續(xù)的人口下降問題。

China Population Association

n.中國人口學會