英語新聞丨Economy set to pick up pace in 2024

China's economy is likely to pick up pace and grow steadily in 2024 after a bumpy recovery last year, propelled by the gradual increase in domestic demand and with more stimulus policies in the offing, officials and economists said on Wednesday.

2024年1月17日，官員和經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家表示，在去年的波折復(fù)蘇后，受國內(nèi)需求逐步增加和更多刺激政策的推動(dòng)，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)可能會(huì)在2024年加速增長并穩(wěn)步增長。

As the broader economy is still facing pressures from a property downturn, lack of effective demand and risks associated with local government debts, economists said the country needs to set an annual GDP growth target of around 5 percent to boost business confidence, and the policy easing should focus on housing and fiscal measures.

由于宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)仍然面臨房地產(chǎn)低迷、有效需求不足和地方政府債務(wù)風(fēng)險(xiǎn)等壓力，經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家表示，中國需要設(shè)定一個(gè)約5%的年度GDP增長目標(biāo)來提振商業(yè)信心，而政策放松應(yīng)該集中在住房和財(cái)政措施上。

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Wednesday that China's GDP expanded by 5.2 percent year-on-year in 2023 to 126.06 trillion yuan ($17.63 trillion), surpassing the country's preset annual growth target of around 5 percent.

國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局1月17日發(fā)布的數(shù)據(jù)顯示，中國2023年GDP同比增長5.2%，至126.06萬億元人民幣(17.63萬億美元)，超過了國家預(yù)先設(shè)定的約5%的年度增長目標(biāo)。

In the fourth quarter of 2023, the Chinese economy grew 5.2 percent year-on-year, following a 4.9 percent growth in the third quarter.

在2023年，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)繼第三季度增長4.9%之后，第四季度同比增長5.2%，。

"China's 5.2 percent growth rate is higher than the anticipated global growth rate of around 3 percent, outpacing many major economies," Kang Yi, head of the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a news conference in Beijing on Wednesday. "China is projected to have contributed more than 30 percent of global economic growth in 2023, making it a primary engine driving global growth."

1月17日，國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局局長康毅在北京的新聞發(fā)布會(huì)上表示：“中國5.2%的增長率高于預(yù)期的全球增長率（約3%），超過了許多主要經(jīng)濟(jì)體。預(yù)計(jì)到2023年，中國對全球經(jīng)濟(jì)增長的貢獻(xiàn)率將超過30%，成為推動(dòng)全球增長的主要引擎?！?/p>

Despite the challenges and difficulties ahead, Kang said that China possesses many advantages and enjoys several opportunities, which outweigh the challenges.

盡管未來仍面臨挑戰(zhàn)和困難，但康毅表示，中國擁有許多優(yōu)勢和機(jī)遇，這些優(yōu)勢能夠克服挑戰(zhàn)。

He said that China's economy is bound to see a steady recovery and improvement in 2024, given the continuing recovery trend, the continuous deepening of reforms and ample policy scope.

他表示，鑒于持續(xù)的復(fù)蘇趨勢、改革的不斷深化和寬松的政策空間，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)在2024年必將迎來穩(wěn)定的復(fù)蘇和改善。

Louise Loo, lead economist at British think tank Oxford Economics, said: "There's plenty to be positive about in China's year-end reported numbers. The cyclical trough is likely behind us."

英國智庫牛津經(jīng)濟(jì)研究院首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家路易絲·盧（Louise Loo）表示：“中國年終報(bào)告的數(shù)字有很多值得肯定的地方。經(jīng)濟(jì)的周期性低谷很有可能已經(jīng)過去?！?/p>

She added that industrial production is likely to accelerate on improved capacity utilization, higher industrial profits, and forward-looking restocking needs.

她補(bǔ)充說，工業(yè)生產(chǎn)可能會(huì)因更高的產(chǎn)能利用率和更高的工業(yè)利潤，以及前瞻性的庫存需求而加速。

Industrial production is already showing signs of improvement, with China's value-added industrial output growing by 6.8 percent last month after a 6.6 percent growth in November.

工業(yè)生產(chǎn)已經(jīng)顯示出改善的跡象，中國工業(yè)增加值在2023年11月增長6.6%后，于12月增長了6.8%。

She said that keeping up with the current growth momentum will require an ongoing and coordinated stimulus effort over the next few quarters.

她表示，要保持當(dāng)前的增長勢頭，需要在未來幾個(gè)季度持續(xù)和協(xié)調(diào)的刺激措施。

Zou Yunhan, deputy director of the macroeconomic research office at the State Information Center's Department of Economic Forecasting, said she expects the nation's economy to expand by around 5 percent in 2024.

國家信息中心經(jīng)濟(jì)預(yù)測部宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)研究室副主任鄒云漢表示，預(yù)測2024年我國經(jīng)濟(jì)將增長約5%。

"The momentum of China's economic recovery is poised to undergo further consolidation this year, propelled by robust policy support, the advancement of industrial transformation and upgrading, and the continuous deepening of reforms."

“在強(qiáng)有力的政策支持、產(chǎn)業(yè)轉(zhuǎn)型升級(jí)的推進(jìn)和改革的不斷深化的推動(dòng)下，中國經(jīng)濟(jì)復(fù)蘇的勢頭今年將進(jìn)一步鞏固。”

Meanwhile, due to the "scarring effect" of the COVID-19 pandemic over the past few years, it could still take time for people's spending power to recover, Zou said.

同時(shí)，鄒云漢表示，由于過去幾年新冠肺炎疫情的“創(chuàng)傷效應(yīng)”，人們的消費(fèi)能力恢復(fù)可能仍需要時(shí)間。

Retail sales, a key measurement of consumer spending, increased by 7.4 percent in December, down from the 10.1 percent growth a month earlier.

衡量消費(fèi)者支出的關(guān)鍵指標(biāo)——零售額在12月增長了7.4%，低于一個(gè)月前的10.1%。

Yu Yongding, an academician at the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said the contributions of consumption and net exports to GDP growth will likely be lower compared with 2023, and capital formation will thus play a bigger role in maintaining a high growth rate this year.

中國社會(huì)科學(xué)院院士余永定表示，2024年的消費(fèi)和凈出口對GDP增長的貢獻(xiàn)可能比2023年有所下降，因此資本形成在今年保持高增長率方面將發(fā)揮更大的作用。

"If the growth rate of consumption in 2024 is lower than that in 2023, achieving a 5 percent GDP growth may require double-digit growth in infrastructure investment," he said.

他說：“如果2024年的消費(fèi)增長率低于2023年，那么實(shí)現(xiàn)5%的GDP增長可能需要基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資的兩位數(shù)增長?！?/p>

Yu said that China should set an annual growth target of at least 5 percent, and the focus should be on expanding budgeted fiscal deficit rates and increase in treasury bonds to provide funding for infrastructure investment.

余永定表示，中國應(yīng)該設(shè)定至少5%的年度增長目標(biāo)，重點(diǎn)應(yīng)該是擴(kuò)大預(yù)算財(cái)政赤字率和增加國債，為基礎(chǔ)設(shè)施投資提供資金。

NBS data showed that China's fixed-asset investment rose by 3 percent in 2023. Infrastructure investment and manufacturing investment grew by 5.9 percent and 6.5 percent, respectively, while real estate investment fell by 9.6 percent in 2023.

國家統(tǒng)計(jì)局?jǐn)?shù)據(jù)顯示，2023年中國固定資產(chǎn)投資增長了3%?；A(chǔ)設(shè)施投資和制造業(yè)投資分別增長了5.9%和6.5%，但房地產(chǎn)投資下降了9.6%。

Tom Orlik, chief economist at Bloomberg Economics, said that China's policymakers have been doing the right thing by attempting to manage the problem of oversupply without triggering a complete collapse in the real estate sector. He said there will be enough stimulus, financing and support for homebuyers this year.

彭博經(jīng)濟(jì)(Bloomberg Economics)首席經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家湯姆·奧爾利克(Tom Orlik)表示，中國的政策制定者一直在做正確的事情，試圖在不引發(fā)房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)全面崩潰的情況下管理供應(yīng)過剩的問題。他說，今年將有足夠的刺激、融資和支持購房者。

He said that China has the scope to keep monetary and fiscal policies supportive to help bolster the economy's recovery, adding that a forceful fiscal policy will play a bigger role in boosting domestic demand.

他說，中國有空間保持貨幣和財(cái)政政策的支持，以幫助支撐經(jīng)濟(jì)的復(fù)蘇，并補(bǔ)充說，有力的財(cái)政政策將在提振內(nèi)需方面發(fā)揮更大的作用。

Zheng Houcheng, chief macroeconomist at Yingda Securities, said a further reduction in the reserve requirement ratio as well as policy rate cuts will likely happen in the first half of 2024.

英大證券（Yingda Securities）首席宏觀經(jīng)濟(jì)學(xué)家鄭厚成（Zheng Houcheng）表示，進(jìn)一步降低存款準(zhǔn)備金率以及政策利率的降息可能會(huì)在2024年上半年發(fā)生。

property

n. 所有物，財(cái)產(chǎn)；地產(chǎn)，房地產(chǎn)；房地產(chǎn)股票（或投資）（properties）

reserve requirement ratio

n.存款準(zhǔn)備金率