英語新聞丨Expert Nation must aim for 5 percent growth this year

China should aim for an economic expansion of "around 5 percent" for 2024, as that will help boost confidence and revive its recovery momentum, Bloomberg Economics' chief economist Tom Orlik said.

彭博經(jīng)濟研究首席經(jīng)濟學(xué)家歐樂鷹（Tom Orlik）在接受《中國日報》獨家采訪時表示，中國應(yīng)該在2024年實現(xiàn)“約5%”的經(jīng)濟增長目標，這一目標將有助于提振信心和重振增長勢頭。

"I think a target of around 5 percent is probably sufficiently ambitious to boost confidence for businesses, and it is not too stretching so as to avoid the risk of overinvestment and over-stimulus," he told China Daily in an exclusive interview.

歐樂鷹表示，5%左右的目標可能足夠雄心勃勃，可以增強企業(yè)信心，而且不會過于牽強，可避免過度投資和過度刺激帶來的風(fēng)險。

Orlik said China has the scope to keep monetary and fiscal policy supportive to help bolster recovery of the economy. In the monetary realm, a further reduction in the reserve requirement ratio as well as policy rate cuts will be likely in the following months, he said. Orlik said a forceful fiscal policy will play a bigger role in stimulating domestic demand.

歐樂鷹表示，中國有能力長期提供貨幣和財政支持，以此促進經(jīng)濟復(fù)蘇。就貨幣政策而言，中國未來幾個月可能會進一步下調(diào)存款準備金率和政策利率；同時，強有力的財政政策將在刺激國內(nèi)需求方面發(fā)揮更大的作用。

The focus should be on spurring household spending and stimulating the development of emerging fields, including providing subsidies for households and increasing spending on city transport and green transition.

重點應(yīng)該放在刺激家庭支出和刺激新興領(lǐng)域的發(fā)展上，具體包括：為家庭提供補貼，增加城市交通和綠色轉(zhuǎn)型所需的相關(guān)預(yù)算。

"I think the big remaining opportunity for China in terms of delivering stimulus is to leverage the central government's balance sheet. And that means a bigger fiscal deficit and a bigger role for fiscal policy in driving growth," he said.

他表示，在刺激經(jīng)濟增長方面，中國仍有很大的財政政策空間。這意味著更大的財政赤字，并使其在推動增長方面發(fā)揮更大作用?！?/p>

Considering stronger policy support, pressure from a real estate downturn, and slowing global growth, Orlik anticipates that China's economy will expand by around 4.5 percent in 2024. On the headwinds for the Chinese economy, he said policymakers have been doing the right thing and attempting to manage down the problem of oversupply without triggering a complete collapse in the property sector.

考慮到更強大的政策支持、房地產(chǎn)的下行壓力和全球增長的放緩，歐力鷹預(yù)計中國經(jīng)濟將在2024年增長約4.5%。談及中國經(jīng)濟增長面臨的阻力，他表示政策制定者一直在做正確的決策，積極采取措施解決房產(chǎn)過剩問題，同時保證房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)不會面臨全面崩盤。

In 2024, there will be enough stimulus, financing and support for homebuyers to prevent a collapse in the real estate sector," he said. Looking ahead, he said it may take two more years of correction in the sector.While the process may cause problems for some developers, banks and households with all or a lot of their wealth in property, China will have a real estate sector that is smaller as a share of the economy at the end of the process.

歐力鷹認為，2024年將會有各種各樣的的措施刺激經(jīng)濟增長、融資、為購房者提供支持，以此保證房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)免于崩潰的絕境。展望未來，他表示該行業(yè)可能還需要兩年的修整。這一過程對部分開發(fā)商、銀行和以地產(chǎn)收入為主或以其為唯一收入的家庭來說，不免算是一場陣痛。但唯有如此，房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)在中國經(jīng)濟中所占份額才會有所減少。

"It's more sustainable in terms of its future trajectory," Orlik said. "It also means that China will have less productive resources, capital, workers focused on the real estate sector. So there can be more focus of productive resources on areas like electric vehicles, for example, where there are very strong growth prospects."

歐力鷹說：“就其未來發(fā)展軌跡而言，它更具可持續(xù)性。這也意味著中國將減少房地產(chǎn)行業(yè)的生產(chǎn)資源、資本和工人配置，進而將生產(chǎn)資源更多地集中用于電動汽車等增長前景非常強勁的領(lǐng)域。

He said booming emerging fields, such as electric vehicles, sustainable energy and high-speed railways, will offer continued growth opportunities for the Chinese economy. More efforts should be made to steadily get through the real estate correction as well as boost confidence of entrepreneurs and global partners.

他表示，電動汽車、可持續(xù)能源、高鐵等新興領(lǐng)域的蓬勃發(fā)展將為中國經(jīng)濟提供持續(xù)增長機遇。要穩(wěn)步渡過房地產(chǎn)調(diào)整期，提振企業(yè)家和全球合作伙伴信心。

Orlik also expressed optimism about China's medium -and long-term development prospects, saying there is huge growth potential. "China's overall GDP per capita is just one-third of the level in Japan, so China is still a middle-income country. That means there's a huge amount of development space left." Going forward, Orlik said China will remain one of the biggest contributors to global growth, creating significant opportunities around the world.

歐力鷹對中國中長期發(fā)展前景表示樂觀。他說：“目前中國總體人均GDP只有日本的三分之一，仍然是中等收入國家，但發(fā)展空間巨大。展望未來，中國仍將是全球增長的最大貢獻者之一，為世界各地創(chuàng)造重大機遇?！?/p>

electric vehicles

電動汽車

per capita

人均