看世界｜加拿大經(jīng)濟開始衰退Recession

2022-10-11 10:49:5705:34 527

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The country’s top economists say: Canada isheaded for a recession, and it’s going to hit earlier, harder and last longerthan previously forecast. 加拿大的經(jīng)濟家們說:加拿大已經(jīng)開始進入經(jīng)濟衰退，而且比以前更嚴重、更持久。

The economists say the next recession,technically defined as two consecutive quarters of negative economic growth, 經(jīng)濟學家說，下一個衰退，從技術上講，就是連續(xù)的兩個季度經(jīng)濟呈現(xiàn)負增長is now forecast to start in the first two quarters of 2023 and willsee the Canadian economy depressed for a year and a half目前預計加拿大的經(jīng)濟衰退將在2023年的前兩個季度開始，而這種經(jīng)濟蕭條將持續(xù)一年半的時間。

In times of recession, businesses struggle,wages fall, jobs are lost, assets lose value, and the country’s overalleconomic well-being declines. 在經(jīng)濟衰退時期，企業(yè)陷入困境，工資下降，人們失業(yè)，資產貶值，國家整體的生活水平下降。

“We had so much of a boom in the last couple of years, especially thehousing market. Now, we’re dealing with the aftermath,” Porter said. 經(jīng)常學家Porter說，在過去的幾年里，我們經(jīng)歷了非常大的繁榮，尤其是房地產市場?，F(xiàn)在，我們開始處理善后工作了。

Just how bad will that aftermath be, andwho will suffer the most? 那么究竟后果會有多糟糕，誰會受到最大的影響呢?

Past recessions tell us that interest-ratesensitive sectors such as the housing market will be hit hardest, as fewer peoplebuy when interest rates are high, and fewer people sell when home pricesplummet. That puts real estate and construction jobs at risk, with fewerclients in the market and home renovations taking a back seat. 過去的衰退告訴我們，對利率敏感的行業(yè)，比如房地產市場等將受到最嚴重的打擊，因為在利率高的時候買房的人會更少，在房價暴跌的時候賣出的人也會更少。這讓房地產和建筑行業(yè)的工作面臨風險，市場上的客戶減少，home renovations房屋裝修工作take a back seat退居次要地位。

But the Canadian economy is also heavilydependent on the U.S., it’s largest trading partner. The U.S. Federal Reserveis pushing interest rates even more aggressively than Canada, which will likelycause a recession by the end of the year, economists say. 美國是加拿大最大的貿易伙伴。加拿大的經(jīng)濟嚴重依賴美國。經(jīng)濟學家說，美國聯(lián)邦儲備委員會的加息力度甚至超過了加拿大，這可能會導致美國在今年年底前進入經(jīng)濟衰退。Once a recession hits in the U.S., trade with Canada will lessen,hurting manufacturing jobs.一旦美國陷入衰退，與加拿大的貿易就會減少，從而影響加拿大的制造業(yè)人員的就業(yè)。

The upshot is that it’s the Canadianworkers in manufacturing — who dodged the impact of the pandemic shutdowns —who will likely catch the brunt of next year’s downturn. 結果是，躲過了疫情影響的加拿大制造業(yè)工人，可能會在明年的經(jīng)濟低迷中首當其沖。

In the U.S., the language is moving awayfrom a soft landing to a crash landing. 在美國，人們的措辭正在從軟著陸轉向緊急著陸。Every time we’ve seen big rate hike increases in the past, it’salways ended up in a recession. 過去每次我們看到大幅加息，最后總是以經(jīng)濟衰退告終。

Key Words

本期關鍵詞

Hike: 大幅度提高，猛增的意思

recession, 衰退.

consecutive 連續(xù)的，不間斷的

depress 蕭條，不景氣

Economicwell-being: 經(jīng)濟福祉意味著人們最基本的生存需求得到滿足，并擁有可持續(xù)的收入和資產，因此他們可以富裕起來。

Boom: 繁榮

Deal with: 處理

Aftermath: 善后，余波

Suffer: 受苦，受折磨

Plummet: 暴跌，墜落